个人思考,仅供参考。
我以前曾经举过一个例子,如果一个人在1973年将其第一年的工资收入(25000,1973年国民收入均值)全部投资到TD银行股票,今年他大概正好是到了退休年龄,按照今天的股价,他的投资总值是955万,即使是考虑税收因素,他的投资回报也远远超过他一生的工资收入。
TD是个例,那如果用指数呢?1973年TSX 1193, 2016年 14148; 1973年SP500 118, 2016年2078,如果计算红利收入复利再投资,一个普通人用第一年工资作为资本投资的收益依然可以超过他一生的工资收入,而且这仅仅是持有和红利复利再投资,没有任何其它操作,这个投资还经历了所有的金融危机市场危机。
这是我们生活的一个经济大环境,我们不可能改变它,所以只能主动的去适应这个经济大环境。
经常有人会用日本过去二十年的经济停滞来怀疑美加的市场未来,这里我们可以听听老巴的意见。
Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida
In response to a question about Japan, Buffett mentions how most Japanese businesses produce low returns on equity, and how time works against you when you own low return businesses:
“Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. They have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, or 6% returns on equity. It’s very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you’re in doesn’t earn very much money.”
老巴二十年前就说过投资日本不太容易。(即使是这样,也有日本人在日本市场投资成功的。)
美加二国有比较成熟的市场体系,目前和今后比较长的时期会依然保持这一优势。
TD 2006 - 2015 ROE
RY 2006 - 2015 ROE
WFC 2006 - 2015 ROE
芒格:
“Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you're not going to make much different than a six percent return - even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with one hell of a result.”
芒格观点解释了为何老巴他们要提高WFC的持股比例,也同样解释了为何在过去几十年无论用怎样的市场高价位买入TD和RY,都能赚钱,而且能赚大钱。