My weekend Sunday, 07/23/2006

What a relaxing weekend. I had a lot of sleep. Talked to my parents and had a very interesting conversation with a friend who is working in the Wall Street. We went to furniture shopping. Have known each other for more than half a year, but we never have a real talk due to the hectic work schedule. Always with a group of friends and made fun of each other.

How good to have an interesting and encouraging talk! When asked what he wants to doa fter retiring from the Wall Street, he said he wants to be a chef, making alot of good recipes and preparing delicious foods for people in the places like Florida . I challenged him by saying that he may not able to adapt to the low pace job like that. He responded me that he may want to have his own company by working with lots of people he like now in the industry and already connected to. This is an interesting person with lots of passion and dreams for his lifetime.  I am sincerely glad we made that talk last night. I learned a lot from what he said as well as himself. Now I feel more close to this open-minded, sweet, and dream-driven American guy. Interesting thing is that the cultural distance which I thought will never be overcome appears not there. The whole conversation is more contents driven. Is that because I become more and more belonging to the part of this American society or just because all the understanding about the life for all the human being is evolving toward the same Big Truth.

I think the Wall Street job basically is a game. You played with a group people to against the rest groups of people in the particular arena. If you like it, great, if you like it just for money, well, try to balance yourself in a certain way and got to know where to stop before your mental stability or physical health is gone.

After a solid nap in the Sunday afternoon, I decided to do some readings. I stepped back to my familiar Columbia U Learner Hall, a beautiful melody mixed with the fresh air after rain stopped me. My favorite Revolutions-Etude, Op. 10-12 was there with me. The boy was doing a great job. I like the strength created in his performance which drives people up. Wondering if so-called grand piano is because its sounds are so solid and strong that make me often feel I was standing in front of the Niagara Fall and was shocked by its power. I suddenly found I was never lost and will never be lost. The western world is never far away from me since my childhood.

Read an article I like talking about the opportunity and the risk of the China’s Financial Market. Great points, I really like it.

中国将迎来真正的金融爆发

经过“五一”长假后的短短 6 个交易日，截至 15 号收盘，上证综指已较节前收盘价上升 223.87 点，升幅为 15.54% ；如果与去年股改启动前的收盘价相比，上证综指已经劲涨 504.94 点，升幅达 43.56% ；如果与去年 6 月 6 日创下的最低点位 998.23 点相比，在不到一年的时间里，上证综指已经暴涨 665.86 点，升幅高达 66.70% 。
当然，从来没有只涨不跌的市场。但无论如何，股市在历经 5 年熊市之后的重新活跃，可以看作一个前所未有的、全新的金融投资时代正在拉开大幕。
尽管从当前的股市表现来看，短线调整随时可能出现。但这并不妨碍我们从更加宏观的层面和金融体系整体转型的角度，来看待这个全新金融投资时代的即将来临。
首先，股市的制度重塑接近完成，全新的市场格局正在奠定。
随着上市公司股权分置改革的顺利推进，股市的最大制度毒瘤正在被彻底清除；过去数年丑闻迭出的证券公司，其市场化重组也已基本完成，综合治理初见成效；引入 QFII 后的“鲇鱼效应”也开始彰显，机构投资者规模激增，市场活力持续增强；过去 5 年宏观经济的持续向好，催生了新一代个人投资者的快速成长，他们有比较健全的投资思维，接受过比较良好的市场化导向的教育。
这些因素都表明，市场已经运行在一个全新的基础之上，被压抑数年的金融投资需求在此基础上正在全面激发。
其次，国有银行改革基本完成，金融资产的配置将更趋有效。过去 3 年来，国有银行系统的改革急流勇进，大刀阔斧。在“外汇注资—股份改造—引入境外投资—公开上市”四步走的指导思路下，截至今时，建设银行已经成功登陆香港市场，中国银行也将很快迎来公开上市。按照预期中的时间表，工商银行也将在下半年登陆资本市场。这将有助于脱胎于“官僚体系”的中国国有商业银行在强大的资本市场外部监督下实现真正的市场化运作，更加有效地配置金融资源。
此外，农业银行也在探索可能的改革模式，虽然目前尚无定论，但其与农信社系统一起融入社会主义新农村建设的基调中，侧重于为新农村建设服务的未来改革定位相信也将日渐清晰。
如此，则在银行业金融机构全部近 40 万亿元资产总额中占去逾半壁江山的四大国有银行，其资产配置的日益市场化，将从根本上改变中国金融资产的配置格局，并以此推进金融市场向更具效率的方向演变。
第 三，利率市场化加速推进，金融产品创新日益蜂起。在银行体系改革、上市公司股权分置改革、利率加速市场化、人民币汇率形成机制改革等因素的相互激发之下，金融产品创新的动能在加速累积。在今后数年中，新上市的金融产品的品种将急剧增多，推出频率将急剧加快，尤其是利率衍生产品及汇率衍生产品。当然，基于股 票及股票指数的金融衍生品也将迎来它的黄金时代。
通过这些创新金融产品之间的相互 勾连，在未来不长的时间内，股市、债市、期市、汇市甚至房市之间的割裂情形将日渐弥合，金融市场的整体性、有效性、联动性将大大增强，投资产品的不断丰富也将有利于提高市场的活跃燃敖灰妆憷?取６源耍?锉钢械慕鹑谘苌?方灰姿?梢钥醋饕桓銮坑辛Φ南质当碚鳌?
最后，大国货币崛起初露端倪，人民币逐步走向完全可兑换利在长远。自从去年 7 月 21 日人民币兑美元一次性小幅调升，并摆脱单一钉住美元状态转为钉住一篮子货币后，至昨日美元对人民币汇率中间价首度“破 8 ”，人民币作为新兴的大国货币，其崛起态势已经端倪初露。
众所周知，作为一个无需阐述的事实，一个强大的国家必须拥有强大的货币，一个正在走向强大的国家也必须拥有正在走向强大的货币。中国要在本世纪中叶实现中华民族的伟大复兴，人民币的和平崛起也必将伴随这一过程。
也就是说，随着人民币汇率形成机制的日益完善、市场作用的日益增强，一个更富弹性的人民币汇率形成机制将有助于中国在本世纪中叶实现中华民族的伟大复兴。
当然，上述过程也并非全无问题。比如，我们注意到，在最近一轮波澜壮阔的金融体系改革中，民间资本的介入并不充分，这在某种程度上甚至有可能影响金融体系市场化改革的最终效果。
但无论如何，趋势已经很明显。即在 21 世纪的第一个 10 年中，中国传统的以国有银行为主体的金融体系将逐步完成其自身的改造升级，一个以资本市场尤其是股票市场为主体的现代金融体系将迅速诞生。这同时也意味着，伴随着实体经济的持续稳定增长，中国将迎来一个真正的金融爆发时代。
来源：第一财经日报