石油领导一切

石油(WITC)今日突破长达个多月的头肩底(见下图),极大地激起TSX的人气,今日TSX大涨142点(1.04%)
.重新回到14000.



前几日,知名技术派分析人士-Clive Maund 在其"Oil Market Update"(6-12-2007)中,

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund061207.html

指出:

" Oil has stubbonly refused to break above the clear line of resistranceat the $67 level, a break above which would be a bullish development that would be expected to lead an another strong run . With the dollar expected to strenthen and gold and silver weaken it seems highly   unlikely that oil will be the odd man out and rally. Other negative factors are the berishly aligned 200-ma moving average and last week 's marked increase in the Commercial 's short positions .  Overall, however, this is much more positive picture than that for gold and silver although a decline at least back to the support about $61 looks likely over the short to medium".

Clive Maund 认为石油和贵金属不可能背离. 在金银形态非常BEARISH而美元反弹强劲的前提下,尽管石油形态和被看好(头肩底),石油很有可能在再次遭遇$67的阻力下回落到$61.

今天石油的强劲表现并一举突破67的颈线,另行家大跌眼镜. 成如Clive Maund 指出,若石油有效突破的话,那末很有可能产生新的一轮上升行情.

今日,TSX能源板在石油大涨的带领下,强劲突破MA20均线,重新回到柏林段上半通到.关键是这两天的成交量放大,对这个突破是有力的支持.



由于能源板在TSX中的龙头老大(重要权重)地位,他的强健突破(MA20)再次领军TSX一改TSX上周的颓势, 有可能在未来带来新的高度.

我们调整短期的走熊的看法,在未来的调整中,将重新补仓.

看来,建立好恰当的组合,以不变应万变乃是上策.

少发言,多思考.