Market View Update (9/13/08)

 A explanation about high call volume of  SPX on Friday:
       The high call volume of SPX  on Friday is  suspicious at this critial time.   Because most of those calls are bought shortly after market open.  ( > 41,000 calls out of 68,000)  And it was too far off the money  to make any money for a call contract which will expire in a week.   So this is most likely  insititution investors'  action to hedge their heavy short position.

      After checking SPY,  I found the Max Pain of SPY is currently located at 1200. And second to it is  1250. This make a lot of  sense. The SPX still has good chance to revisit 1200 next week.

Some of supporting points:
1.  SPY  has a raising wedge with declined volume in past three days which is bearish.
2.  Used to be leading sector Tech sector is continuiously weakening. The lead stocks in tech sector AAPL, RIMM, GOOG are all under or near the critial support level.
3.  The strongest sector in past 4 weeks RUT can not break above strong resistance around 760.
4.  Retail and Home builder sectors are also at strong resistance level.
5.  The last resort of Investment bank GS just closed below ascending long term trend line. This is significant.  Because this is the first time for GS weekly closed below long term trend line. If GS ER or outlook is not good  ( GS will report ER Tuesday before market open) that will cause another sell off in financials and push market lower.
6.  VIX still remains high at 25. 66  The fear of market falling is not relieved at all.
7.  SPX  tested 7/15 low twice within a week. ( 9/5 1217 and 9/11 1211 ) This shows the strong market intension to test 1200 and to create a new low.
8. SPX can not break and stay above critical support level around 1263-1270 three days in a row and weekly closed below it.
9. Too many "Experts" called bottom and many has been expecting a big rally in the market.
10. LEH's uncertainty.  If LEH has a deal on Monday, market could have a rally for short term, if not, big down wave is expected.

Combining all of above, I don't see a rosy picture of the market, just opposite of it. There is no reason to be optimistic at this juncture.  Be aware the potential risks.

Don't  be cautht without guard.

JMHO