波段小课堂 --- 何时见底,market capitulation才见底.

今天股市老师白天讲课讲累了.波段同学是半瓶子晃荡,不敢再忧国忧民,咱们自学吧.

这才跌几天,有同学就耐不住了,心情可以理解,但时间因素不理解,价格因素和成交量因素也不理解.

还是前天那个老问题,当一列火车从山头上翻下来的时候,会在半山腰自己停下来吗? 火车会拐弯吗?

什么时候火车才能停下来呢, market capitulation! 对了,只有market capitulation出现,火车才会拐弯地....

什么是market capitulation呢?

简单地说,就是八年抗战胜利,小日本鬼子投降.威武的中国人民解放军挺进大江南,解放全中国.

有同学说,你又忽悠俺们,要等那老久啊...同学们,一定要对革命充满信心,革命胜利的那一天一定会到来!

market capitulation那一天,就是伟大领袖毛主席站在雄伟的天安门城楼上庄严宣布:中国人民从此站起来了!的那一天.

上面的确是在忽悠大家.哈哈哈哈.人不忽悠长不大.

真正的market capitulation是什么呢?

就是散户们举手投降,全都割肉割在地板上.

割吧,昭仓也割了...唐塔也割了...你也割了吧....前面蓝天多么的蓝啊..割了吧...


What is market capitulation?


By definition, capitulation means to surrender or give up. In financial circles, this term is used to indicate the point in time when investors have decided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of falling stock prices. Suppose a stock you own has dropped by 10%. There are two options that can be taken: you can wait it out and hope the stock begins to appreciate, or you can realize the loss by selling the stock. If the majority of investors decides to wait it out, then stock price will likely remain relatively stable. However, if the majority of investors decides to capitulate and give up on the stock, then there will be a sharp decline in its price. When this occurrence is significant across the entire market, it is known as market capitulation.

The significance of capitulation lies in its implications. Many market professionals consider it to be a sign of a bottom in prices and consequently a good time to buy stocks. This is because basic economic factors dictate that large sell volumes will drive prices down, while large buy volumes will drive prices up. Since almost everyone who wanted (or felt forced) to sell stock has already done so, only buyers are left - and they are expected to drive the prices up. (If you are unfamiliar with these principles, check out our Economics Basics Tutorial.)

The problem with capitulation is that it is very difficult to forecast and identify. There is no magical price at which capitulation takes place. Often, investors will only agree in hindsight as to when the market actually capitulated.