科班学金融和经济都知道：米国债比股市对经济预测的更准确。市场最关心的问题是米国是不是会再次衰退，最近出来的经济数据都增加了几率。QE2是个失败的实验，市场和FED对qe3不会抱太大希望。
PIMCO: Treasury market reflects likelihood of recession
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, said on Friday the rally in Treasury yields to 60-year lows reflect a high probability of recession in the United States.
Gross, the co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $1.2 trillion, also told Reuters Insider television it is apparent that policy options are limited.
"It is increasingly apparent to us that policy options are limited and that economic growth is slowing down," said Gross said. "There's no doubt that growth from the standpoint of employment or unemployment and growth from the standpoint of corporate profits is definitely a risk -- whether or not we see a positive 1 percent real GDP number I think is besides the point."
Gross said low Treasury yields are flashing recessionary conditions.
"They certainly reflect, in terms of their yields, not only a potential for a recession but the almost high probability of recession and the result of lowering inflation."
很罕见的经济现象，与日本90年代雷同：recession in lowering inflation!!!
