62%比61%！这领域中国首次击败美国
2022年10月28日 参考消息
中共官媒参考消息报道：据美国《新闻周刊》网站10月25日报道，随着人们对全球的西方式民主国家失去信心，中国在意识形态和政治斗争中首次击败美国，赢得发展中国家人民的好感。
报道称，英国剑桥大学民主未来中心最近进行的一项民调显示，发展中国家目前有62%的人对中国有好感，61%的人对美国有好感。这些数据融合了30个全球调查项目，涵盖97%的世界人口。
报道称，尽管西方式民主国家更加坚定地支持美国，对中国和俄罗斯持有一边倒的负面看法，但过去10年来，东欧、亚洲和西非的许多国家逐渐向中国靠拢。
报道称，调查数据显示，生活在全球136个非西方式民主国家的63亿人口中，有70%的人对中国持正面看法。
报道称，为什么中国能赢得发展中国家的支持？其背后的原因之一是它们认为自由主义国家的民主制度存在缺陷。
根据民主未来中心的调查，在大部分人对西方式民主制度感到不满的国家当中，有四分之三国家的大多数民众对中国持有正面看法。
报道称，不过，中国赢得发展中国家的支持背后也有经济原因。中国在2013年提出了“一带一路”倡议，已经同147个国家和32个国际组织签署200余份合作文件，用来建设能源基础设施和交通运输项目。
在获得“一带一路”倡议支持的国家的民众当中，有近三分之二的人对中国持正面看法。
另据美国之音电台网站10月25日报道，英国一家民调机构在全球所作的一项民调显示，中国在西方国家以外的世界受欢迎程度远高于西方国家。
报道称，由英国独立调查公司“舆观调查网”以“舆观-剑桥全球化项目”名义所作的民调发现，12个非西方国家中有9个国家的绝大多数受访者对中国在世界上的作用持积极看法，而且北京在后疫情时代的声望也在几个国家中得到改善。
墨西哥对中国持积极看法的人从去年的50%上升到今年的59%；埃及和沙特对中国持积极看法的人也有所上升，泰国、肯尼亚和尼日利亚也出现了同样的情况。
China is Beating U.S. in the Battle for Influence Over Developing Countries
https://www.newsweek.com/china-beating-us-battle-influence-developing-countries-1754421
Why China Growing Their Influence On World Trade And Ports Could Be A Problem
According to a recent poll by the Centre for the Future of Democracy of the University of Cambridge, U.K., 62 percent of people in developing countries are now favorable towards China, while 61 percent see the U.S. positively.
In this combination photo, a file photo of security guards walking past the Chinese national flag at the Military Museum of Chinese People's Revolution and U.S. President Joe Biden looks out to a crowd at Delaware State University on October 21, 2022. The president has shied away from any comment.
There's only a small distance between the two countries, and that one percentage point difference might not seem so significant. But the data reveals a world that has become more polarized since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February this year.
Data from the Centre for the Future of Democracy—obtained by merging 30 global survey projects that span a total of 137 countries representing 97 percent of the world population—shows that, among the 1.2 billion people living in the world's liberal democracies, 75 percent hold a negative view of China and 87 percent a negative view of Russia.
This same data is almost reversed in developing countries. Among the 6.3 billion people who live in the world's remaining 136 countries, 70 percent feel positively towards China and 66 percent towards Russia.
This divide, which has been in the making for the last 10 years as Russia and especially China expanded their influence in developing countries through investments and trades, has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
democracies, led by the United States; and a Eurasian bloc of illiberal or autocratic states, centred upon Russia and China," writes the Centre for the Future of Democracy in its report.
Why Are Russia and China Gaining Support in Developing Countries?
One of the reasons linked to the increased support in developing countries for authoritarian powers like China and Russia are perceived shortcomings of democracies in liberal countries.
A majority of the public is dissatisfied with democratic performance in seven out of 10 countries that are majority-favourable to Russia, according to the Centre for the Future of Democracy, while most feel positively towards China in three-quarters of countries that are majority-dissatisfied with how their democracy is performing.
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But there are also economic reasons behind the support China enjoys in developing countries. In 2013, China launched the Belt and Road initiative, a massive project that has invested over $4 trillion into the 147 participating countries to build energy infrastructure and transportation projects.
Among the 4.6 billion people living in countries supported by the Belt and Road Initiative, almost two-thirds hold a positive view of China, compared
to just 27 percent in non-participating countries that have not received Beijing's assistance.
On the other hand, China has gained approval in developing countries while losing significant support in developed nations. Five years ago, 42 percent of Western citizens looked at China positively, while now only 23 percent do.
The same is true about Russia: the number of Western citizens holding a positive view of Russia dropped from 39 percent to 12 in the past 10 years, plunging from 23 to 12 percent only since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.
The troubling factor to consider is that the Kremlin probably doesn't even care about losing support in Western democracies. "The real terrain of Russia's international influence lies outside of the West," writes the Centre for the Future of Democracy.
Some 75 percent of respondents in South Asia, 68 percent in Francophone Africa, 62 percent in Southeast Asia holds a positive opinion of Russia despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.
One last reason why developing countries might have swayed from the U.S. towards China and Russia are conflicting values: as the U.S. and Western nations have embraced more progressive values in the last decade—regarding LGBTQ+ rights, individualism, and gender equality—other countries have stuck to their traditional, conservative values.
This has offered an opportunity for authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to present themselves as defenders of "traditional" values in the face of a so-called western "decadence"—Putin's case—and protectors of their country's national sovereignty—Xi's case.
This new world's polarization clearly shows that the nations that feel closer to China and Russia are poorer, less stable, and more dependent upon their external support, while the liberal bloc rallying around the U.S. has a significant advantage, accounting for the lion's share of global military spending, foreign aid, and cultural influence.
Popular in the Community
Faith in democracy: millennials are the most disillusioned generation ‘in living memory’
https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/populismandcovid?
Story: Fred Lewsey
“Right across the world, we are seeing an ever widening gap between youth and older generations on how they perceive the functioning of democracy”
Dr Roberto Foa
“There is strong evidence that the pandemic has severely blunted the rise of populism”
Support for populist parties and politicians, and agreement with populist sentiment, has fallen amid the pandemic, according to a “mega-dataset” taking in the attitudes of over half a million people across 109 countries.
A University of Cambridge team say there are clear signs of a turning tide for the “populist wave”, as the mishandling of coronavirus by populist leaders – along with a desire for stability and a decline in “polarising” attitudes as a result of the pandemic – starts to move public opinion.
The authors of the new report, from Cambridge’s Centre for the Future of Democracy (CFD), describe the study as the first global overview of how the Covid-19 crisis has affected political beliefs.
They say that threats posed by the pandemic saw a “technocratic” shift in political authority worldwide, with increased trust in government, and in experts such as scientists and civil servants.
Yet faith in the democratic processes by which people elect their representatives has continued to falter.
“The story of politics in recent years has been the emergence of anti-establishment politicians who thrive on the growing distrust of experts,” said Dr Roberto Foa, Co-Director of the CFD and the report’s lead author.
“From Erdogan and Bolsonaro to the ‘strong men’ of Eastern Europe, the planet has experienced a wave of political populism. Covid-19 may have caused that wave to crest.”
A protester calling for “Bolsonaro out” in Brazil last summer.
“Electoral support for populist parties has collapsed around the world in a way we don’t see for more mainstream politicians.
“There is strong evidence that the pandemic has severely blunted the rise of populism,” said Foa.
The findings are published by Cambridge’s Bennett Institute for Public Policy.
The first months of the pandemic saw many political leaders get a boost in ratings – a classic “rally round the flag” effect in troubled times, say researchers.
However, the approval ratings of populist leaders the world over began declining almost as soon as coronavirus hit, and have continued to sink ever since.
On average, populist leaders have seen a 10 percentage point drop between the spring of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, while ratings for non-populists – on average – returned to around pre-pandemic levels.
Electoral support also plunged for their parties – seen most clearly in Europe, where the proportion of people intending to vote for a populist party* has fallen by an average of 11 percentage points to 27%.
Dr Xavier Romero-Vidal
Overall, across Europe, early lockdowns saw voting intention for incumbent parties increase. Yet all the continent’s governing populists – from Italy’s Five Star to Hungary’s Fidezs – bucked the trend with the largest declines in support.
Support for Europe’s opposition populist parties also fell over the pandemic – by 5 points on average to 11% – while it rose for “mainstream” opposition.
Researchers suggest several factors for populism’s fading appeal. One is simply the botch job made of the pandemic by populist governments: from Bolsonaro’s mask veto to Trump’s “bleach injection” suggestion.
The report’s polling shows the public considered populist leaders to be less trustworthy sources of virus-related information than centrist counterparts.
In June 2020, approval of government handling of the crisis was 11 percentage points lower on average in countries with populist leaders than in those with more centrist governance. By the end of 2020, this gap had widened to 16 points.
Researchers also found that political “tribalism” – fertile ground for populists – has declined in most countries. The percentage of party supporters expressing a “strong dislike” of those who vote for opposing politicians fell in most nations (although not the US) during the crisis.
“The pandemic fostered a sense of shared purpose that may have reduced the political polarisation we’ve seen over the last decade,” said CFD researcher and report co-author Dr Xavier Romero-Vidal. “This could help explain why populist leaders are struggling to mobilise support.”
Some of the ideas propagated by populists are losing ground. Levels of agreement with statements such as “corrupt elites” divide our nation or the “will of the people” should be obeyed fell in almost every nation surveyed.
For example, agreement with four such statements** fell on average by 9 percentage points in Italy to 66%, 10 points in France to 61%, and 8 points in the UK to 64%, between 2019 and 2021.
Commitment to these ideas has also waned. Even among supporters, in almost every nation a smaller number now “strongly agree” than did in 2019. In developed democracies, this shift is predominantly among those aged over 55.
Moreover, areas with the sharpest drops in populist attitudes are some of the poorer “left behind” regions – from Eastern Poland to Southern Italy and Northern Hungary – that have been a focus for populist rhetoric and support.
“This may be down to some rebalancing of wealth as people escaped cities overrun with the virus,” said Foa. “In addition, Covid-19 border closures stopped migration and globalised trade more effectively than any populist government.”
However, some “illiberal” policies gained traction while populations were in the teeth of the pandemic.
Majorities in all major nations surveyed in 2020 were content with banning handshakes, and much of the public – including majorities in Japan and Germany – supported restricting online discussions of the virus***.
The consequence of populist decline has not been renewed faith in liberal democracy, say researchers. Perhaps tainted by the record of populists in office, support for democracy has also waned.
Instead, citizens increasingly favour technocratic sources of authority, such as having “non-political” experts take decisions.
A 'Count Every Vote' rally in Washington DC after the 2020 US election.
By the start of summer 2020, belief that experts should be allowed to make decisions “according to what they think best for the country” had risen 14 points to 62% in Europe and 8 points to 57% in the US****.
While trust in government has steadily climbed since the pandemic hit, increasing by 3.4 percentage points on average right across the world’s democratic nations*****, faith in democracy as a political system barely changed.
“Satisfaction with democracy has recovered only slightly since the post-war nadir of 2019, and is still well below the long-term average,” said Foa.
“Some of the biggest declines in democratic support during the pandemic were seen in Germany, Spain and Japan – nations with large elderly populations particularly vulnerable to the virus.”
In the US, the percentage of people who consider democracy a “bad” way to run the country more than doubled from 10.5% in late 2019 to 25.8% in late 2021.
Added Foa: “The pandemic has brought good and bad news for liberal democracy. On the upside, we see a decline in populism and a restoration of trust in government.
“On the downside, some illiberal attitudes have are increasing, and satisfaction with democracy remains very low.”
*Parties were classified as “populist” according to Rooduijn et al (2019): “The PopuList: An Overview of Populist, Far Right, Far Left and Eurosceptic Parties in Europe”, www.popu-list.org.
**In all, four statements considered mainstays of populist sentiment were tested: belief that the country is divided between ordinary people and corrupt elites; belief that “the will of the people” should guide politics; that special interests block progress; that information is deliberately concealed from the public.
*** Respondents were asked what measures they would support in the event of a future crisis similar to coronavirus.
****Targeted surveys in the US and seven Western European nations (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden, UK, Denmark). First survey in Nov 2019, with follow-up in May 2020.
*****All countries currently rated as full “free” democracies by Freedom House. Increase between 2nd quarter of 2020 to last quarter of 2021.
Support for populist politics ‘collapsed’ during the pandemic – global report
https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/blog/great-reset/
Published on 18 January 2022
New report shows support for populist politics ‘collapsed’ during the pandemic but satisfaction with democracy also continued to falter.
Support for populist parties and politicians, and agreement with populist sentiment, has diminished during the pandemic, according to a “mega-dataset” taking in attitudes of over half a million people across 109 countries since 2020.
A University of Cambridge team say there are clear signs of a turning tide for the “populist wave”, as the mishandling of coronavirus by populist leaders – along with a desire for stability and a decline in “polarising” attitudes resulting from the pandemic – starts to move public opinion.
The authors of the new report, from Cambridge’s Centre for the Future of Democracy (CFD), describe the study as the first global overview of how the Covid-19 crisis has affected political beliefs.
They say that threats posed by the pandemic saw a “technocratic” shift in political authority worldwide, with increased trust in government, and in experts such as scientists and civil servants. Yet faith in the democratic process has continued to falter.
“The story of politics in recent years has been the emergence of anti-establishment politicians who thrive on the growing distrust of experts,” said Dr Roberto Foa, Co-Director of the CFD and the report’s lead author.
“From Erdogan and Bolsonaro to the ‘strong men’ of Eastern Europe, the planet has experienced a wave of political populism. Covid-19 may have caused that wave to crest.”
“Electoral support for populist parties has collapsed around the world in a way we don’t see for more mainstream politicians. There is strong evidence that the pandemic has severely blunted the rise of populism,” said Foa.
The findings are published today by Cambridge’s Bennett Institute for Public Policy.
The first months of the pandemic saw many political leaders get a boost in ratings – a classic “rally round the flag” effect in troubled times, say researchers.
However, the approval ratings of populist leaders the world over began declining almost as soon as coronavirus hit, and have continued to sink ever since.
On average, populist leaders have seen a 10 percentage point drop between the spring of 2020 and the last quarter of 2021, while ratings for non-populists – on average – returned to around pre-pandemic levels.
Electoral support also plunged for their parties – seen most clearly in Europe, where the proportion of people intending to vote for a populist party* has fallen by an average of 11 percentage points to 27%.
Overall, across Europe, early lockdowns saw voting intention for incumbent parties increase. Yet all the continent’s governing populists – from Italy’s Five Star to Hungary’s Fidezs – bucked the trend with the largest declines in support.
Support for Europe’s opposition populist parties also fell over the pandemic – by 5 pp on average to 11% – while it rose for “mainstream” opposition.
Researchers suggest several factors for populism’s fading appeal. One is simply the botch job made of the pandemic by populist governments: from Bolsonaro’s mask veto to Trump’s “bleach injection” suggestion.
The report’s polling shows the public considered populist leaders to be less trustworthy sources of virus-related information than centrist counterparts.
In June 2020, approval of government handling of the crisis was 11 percentage points lower on average in countries with populist leaders than in those with more centrist governance. By the end of 2020, this gap had widened to 16 points.
Researchers also found that political “tribalism” – fertile ground for populists – has declined in most countries. The percentage of party supporters expressing a “strong dislike” of those who vote for opposing politicians fell in most nations (although not the US) during the crisis.
“The pandemic fostered a sense of shared purpose that may have reduced the political polarisation we’ve seen over the last decade,” said CFD researcher and report co-author Dr Xavier Romero-Vidal. “This could help explain why populist leaders are struggling to mobilise support.”
Some of the ideas propagated by populists are losing ground. Levels of agreement with statements such as “corrupt elites” divide our nation or the “will of the people” should be obeyed fell in almost every nation surveyed.
For example, agreement with four such statements** fell on average by 9 percentage points in Italy to 66%, 10 points in France to 61%, and 8 points in the UK to 64%, between 2019 and 2021.
Commitment to these ideas has also waned. Even among supporters, in almost every nation a smaller number now “strongly agree” than did in 2019. In developed democracies, this shift is predominantly among those aged over 55.
Moreover, areas with the sharpest drops in populist attitudes are some of the poorer “left behind” regions – from Eastern Poland to Southern Italy and Northern Hungary – that have been a focus for populist rhetoric and support.
“This may be down to some rebalancing of wealth as people escaped cities overrun with the virus,” said Foa. “In addition, Covid-19 border closures stopped migration and globalised trade more effectively than any populist government.”
However, some “illiberal” policies gained traction while populations were in the teeth of the pandemic. Majorities in all major nations surveyed in 2020 were content with banning handshakes, and much of the public – including majorities in Japan and Germany – supported restricting online discussions of the virus***.
The consequence of populist decline has not been renewed faith in liberal democracy, say researchers. Perhaps tainted by the record of populists in office, support for democracy has also waned.
Instead, citizens increasingly favour technocratic sources of authority, such as having “non-political” experts take decisions.
By the start of summer 2020, belief that experts should be allowed to make decisions “according to what they think best for the country” had risen 14 points to 62% in Europe and 8 points to 57% in the US****.
While trust in government has steadily climbed since the pandemic hit, increasing by 3.4 percentage points on average right across the world’s democratic nations*****, faith in democracy as a political system barely changed.
“Satisfaction with democracy has recovered only slightly since the post-war nadir of 2019, and is still well below the long-term average,” said Foa.
“Some of the biggest declines in democratic support during the pandemic were seen in Germany, Spain and Japan – nations with large elderly populations particularly vulnerable to the virus.”
In the US, the percentage of people who consider democracy a “bad” way to run the country more than doubled from 10.5% in late 2019 to 25.8% in late 2021.
Added Foa: “The pandemic has brought good and bad news for liberal democracy. On the upside, we see a decline in populism and a restoration of trust in government. On the downside, some illiberal attitudes are increasing, and satisfaction with democracy remains very low.”
Report: The Great Reset: Public Opinion, Populism, and the Pandemic
Notes
*Parties were classified as “populist” according to Rooduijn et al (2019): “The PopuList: An Overview of Populist, Far Right, Far Left and Eurosceptic Parties in Europe”, www.popu-list.org
**In all, four statements considered mainstays of populist sentiment were tested: belief that the country is divided between ordinary people and corrupt elites; belief that “the will of the people” should guide politics; that special interests block progress; that information is deliberately concealed from the public.
*** Respondents were asked what measures they would support in the event of a future crisis similar to coronavirus.
****Targeted surveys in the US and seven Western European nations (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Sweden, UK, Denmark). First survey in Nov 2019, with follow-up in May 2020.
*****All countries currently rated as full “free” democracies by Freedom House. Increase between 2nd quarter of 2020 to last quarter of 2021.
- The latest work builds on the Centre’s research tracking attitudes to democracy over several decades. In total, including “baseline” data, the report draws on survey responses from almost eight million people in 169 countries.
- The report is funded by Luminate – a global philanthropic organisation focused on empowering people and institutions to work together to build just and fair societies. www.luminategroup.com
- The authors wish to thank the YouGov-Cambridge Centre for Public Opinion Research for providing access to various data sources. This report represents independent use of the data by the Centre for the Future of Democracy and does not reflect the analysis of YouGov.
- The report is published by the Bennett Institute for Public Policy
