John Mearsheimer | EVERYTHING the UNITED STATES touches turns to ASH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKPHsaybwms
解说词
talk about the conventional wisdom
conventional wisdom is that Putin is the
main cause of the crisis
some say he's either crazy or irrational
Angela Merkel was making this argument
for a while he's bent on creating a
greater Russia
and he Bears Mark resemblance to Adolf
Hitler
say a few words about each of these uh I
know a great deal about Adolf Hitler
I've written and I teach extensively on
uh
Nazi Germany's behavior in the 30s and
during World War II the idea that he
Bears any resemblance to Adolf Hitler is
laughable in the extreme it's hard to
believe that serious people make that
argument
uh the idea that he's bent on creating a
greater Russia I think if he could do it
he'd do it he can't do it Russia is a
declining great power and as I said to
you before if they were to try and
create a greater Russia by invading
Ukraine and by invading the Baltic
states they'd be jumping into the Briar
Patch
in fact again if you want to wreck
Russia what you should do is tell them
to try and create a greater Russia it
will lead to no end of trouble I think
Putin is much too smart for that and he
is in the process of wrecking Ukraine I
want to make that clear and he's
wrecking Ukraine because he's basically
saying to the West you can't have it and
I'll wreck it before you take it
is he crazy or irrational I don't think
so
I think he's very strategic
and I don't think he's the main cause of
the crisis as I said to you
another set of arguments associated with
the convention of wisdom this is that
the United States is a benign hegemon
seeking to promote European stability
seeking to promote stability in Asia all
over the globe and so forth and so on
there's some countries like Japan and
Germany for sure Poland who view the
United States as a benign hegemon there
are many countries out there who do not
Iran is one China is another and Russia
is a third they just don't see it that
way and because they don't see it that
way you should understand that when you
take measures you mean in the United
States that you think are going to be
interpreted as benign
the other side will not see them that
way they will see them as threatening
this gets back to my point about
democracy promotion We Believe democracy
promotion is an unalloyed good and we
can't understand why people like Putin
and the leaders in Beijing don't
understand this but they don't
understand it and if you don't recognize
what other people think you're incapable
of putting yourself in their shoes
you're going to get yourself into a heck
of a lot of trouble and of course that's
exactly what happened here
and then another argument is that
Putin's Behavior proves that it was wise
to expand NATO Eastward to try to
include Ukraine and Georgia
right
it's very interesting is that there is
no evidence that we thought Putin was
aggressive before the crisis there's no
evidence that we thought that there's no
evidence that we were talking about
expanding NATO
because we had to contain the Russians
because again NATO expansion was driven
by 21st Century men and women they
believed balance of power politics is
dead that's what happened here
do you understand Putin is a 19th
century man right he does view the world
of balance of paraple in terms of
balanced power Politics as do we when it
comes to the Monroe Doctrine in the
Western Hemisphere but in this case in
the case of Europe we were thinking like
21st Century men and women
and we thought that we could just drive
right up to his doorstep and it wouldn't
matter
right we did not think that Russia was
aggressive what happened here is that
after the crisis broke out on February
22nd we then decided that Russia was
aggressive we then decided that Russia
was bent on creating a greater Russia it
was after the fact
and by the way this is why President
Obama and virtually all of Washington
was caught with their pants down when
this crisis broke out after February
22nd because they did not see it coming
talk a little bit about our response
we're basically doubling down
uh we're getting tougher and tougher
with the Russians that's our strategy
and that's exactly what you'd expect if
you're going to blame them
given that we're incapable of blaming
ourselves because we never do anything
wrong you all know that all the problems
in the world are caused by everybody
else Never by the United States because
we're a benign hegemon
well if we're the good guys and they're
the bad guys and they're misbehaving
they're bent on creating a greater
Russia oh my God this is the 1930s all
over again any sort of concession to
Putin is Munich October 1938 can't do
that so what you do is you double down
you get tougher and tougher
uh then this brings us to the question
of whether we can succeed or not my
argument is you're playing a losing hand
right and the reason you're playing a
losing hand is because this is a
competition between economic
considerations and security
considerations the basic mindset of
people in the west is that you can
punish the Russians economically and
they'll throw their hands up
my argument is when security
considerations are at stake when core
strategic interests are at stake and
there's no question ladies and gentlemen
in Russia's case this is a core
strategic interest countries will suffer
enormously before they throw their hands
up right so you can inflict a lot of
pain on the Russians and they're not
going to quit and they're not going to
quit because Ukraine matters to them and
by the way Ukraine doesn't matter to us
you understand there's nobody calling
for us to fight in Ukraine even John
McCain who up until recently has never
seen a war he didn't want to fight
okay
is not calling for using military force
in Ukraine
what John McCain is saying is not is
that Ukraine is not a vital strategic
interest for the West that's what he's
saying it is a vital strategic interest
for the Russians they've made that
perfectly clear and not just Putin
right so in terms of the balance of
resolve it's all on their side and I
showed you that slide up there that
depicted how much economic leverage the
Russians have because of all that
natural gas going Westward
all right so we're playing a losing hand
here
but let's assume that I'm wrong
let's assume that we're playing a
winning hand and that we are capable of
backing Putin into a corner
and we're getting close to pushing him
off a cliff
is this good
you're talking about a country that's
got thousands of nuclear weapons
and the only circumstance really under
which states use nuclear weapons is when
they're desperate
when they think their survival is at
stake
so what you're talking about is putting
Putin in a situation where he's
desperate and if you go home and Google
Putin and nuclear brinksmanship you'll
be reading all the articles that come up
for the next two years
right because he's making it clear
that you're fooling around with his core
strategic interests and again he's got
thousands of nuclear weapons so you're
putting yourself in a position right
you're putting yourself in a position
where
you're willing to risk a possible
nuclear war over a piece of real estate
Ukraine that is of that is not a vital
strategic interest to the United States
again it's not a vital strategic
interest to us
by the way this will be my final point
on this
truly amazing about all of this is that
we were talking about incorporating
Ukraine into NATO when we have now
acknowledged by not taking military
action over Ukraine that it's not a
vital strategic interest you understand
that when you incorporate Ukraine into
NATO you're giving them an article 5
guarantee which says you'll come to
their defense if they're attacked you
only give Article 5 guarantees to
countries that are of vital strategic
interest
but Germany during the Cold War what
were we doing give it an article five
thinking about giving an article 5
guarantee to a country
that's not a vital strategic interest it
just shows you how discombobulated
American foreign policy is these days
and of course the Ukraine crisis is just
one of many messes that we've made as
you know we have the Midas touch in
Reverse there's nothing that we do that
doesn't go south Afghanistan Iraq Libya
Ukraine I could go on
so the point I'm making to you is I do
not think that this is going to work but
if it does work I'm not sure it's a good
thing
