我们正在见证深刻的变化
https://asiasociety.org/switzerland/we-are-witnessing-profound-change
陆克文谈了解中国如何看待世界
苏黎世，2022 年 6 月 2 日 - 2022 年 6 月 2 日星期四，瑞士亚洲协会和瑞士信贷主办了 Hon.亚洲协会主席、澳大利亚前总理陆克文在苏黎世圣彼得论坛与瑞士亚洲协会执行董事尼科·卢赫辛格就中国世界观进行对话。
我们的要点
习近平的十个同心圆世界观。了解中国如何看待世界不仅仅是一种无聊的学术思考。我们脚下正在发生深刻的变化。习近平改变了中国，打破了其前任不断发展的连续性道路。他将中国的政治和经济转向左翼，将民族主义和外交政策转向右翼。了解习近平的世界观并能够对其做出回应至关重要。他的十大优先事项是：
不惜一切代价让党继续掌权，并让他自己担任党的领导人。确保国家统一，就像在新疆、西藏、香港所做的那样，在台湾也将如此。
发展经济。以环境可持续的方式做到这一点。
将军队现代化建设成为一支能打仗、能打胜仗的世界级军队。
至少与 14 个邻国保持良性关系，但最好让它们顺从。
通过确保太平洋地区的海上影响力并破坏美国在亚洲的联盟来击退美国。
将欧亚大陆转变为越来越依赖中国的经济机遇区。
成为其他发展中国家不可或缺的合作伙伴。
改变国际体系的性质，使其更加符合中国的世界观。
习近平将马克思列宁主义重新引入中国经济。习近平深刻改变了中国的经济增长模式，令人惊讶。为什么要改变四十年来实现两位数增长的模式？这种模式增加了私营部门的机会，减少了国家计划的作用，并扩大了与世界其他地区的经济一体化。现在，预期增长仅为低个位数。
造成这种变化的原因是习近平和他坚定的马克思列宁主义政治。以前的模式创造了一大群新的精英——像马云这样的人。习近平认为这些人最终是对共产党统治的挑战，因此他通过强制成功的私营企业和实力较弱的国有企业合并等方式来控制他们。
中国希望成为我们所有人不可或缺的一部分。北京的宏伟战略是确保我们的经济、企业和个人福祉取决于进入中国市场。截至2017年，为实现这一目标已经制定了相当有效的战略，其中包括“一带一路”倡议以及将中东欧国家与中国联系起来的“16+1”合作。这些发展都使中国成为贸易和资本市场上日益不可或缺的力量。
事情之所以出错，是因为典型的过度扩张，这是习近平的核心失败。他采取强制经济外交和直接战狼外交作为让各国遵守中国意愿的工具，走得太远、太快、太早。这并没有提升中国的利益。
如果你不是超级大国，有效的中国战略的五个部分。这些标准是管理与中国复杂关系的好方法：
永远不要在 1948 年《世界人权宣言》中定义的人权问题上退缩，中国是该宣言的签署国。在国际法中确立您对人权的立场。
如果你现在是美国的盟友，就永远不要退出。
酌情最大限度地扩大与中国的经济接触。
在全球治理体系内开展工作。
如果你挑衅中国，而且你不是超级大国，一定不要单独行动。
有关这些标准如何在实践中发挥作用的例子，请看日本。它通过自己强有力的原则来管理与中国的关系。两国之间的经济关系仍然牢固，尽管日本没有在其人权原则或与美国的联盟方面退缩，并且不断与其他国家建立伙伴关系（最近是在四方会谈中）以有效应对中国。
如果中国称你很特别，请不要感到太受宠若惊。瑞士可能认为它与中国有着特殊的关系，但北京对除美国以外的所有国家都这么说。
中国非常尊重瑞士这个极其成功的国家。但简单的事实是：当中国想到欧洲时，就会想到德国。德国对于如何与中国接触的看法在北京受到密切关注。
乌克兰战争并没有改变台湾问题。俄罗斯在乌克兰的表现平淡无奇，尽管我们必须暂停判断，直到我们知道顿巴斯会发生什么，但这并不意味着
根本改变中国与台湾统一的时间表。
习近平希望这一切发生在 2020 年代末、2030 年代初。在那之前，中国正在通过建设一支强大、具有决定性的军事力量和一个更具主导性、更有弹性的经济来做好准备。如果有的话，中国会告诉俄罗斯，在入侵乌克兰之前应该做好更好的准备。中国现在正在做的就是更好地做好准备。
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西方和中国都必须回答的一个基本问题
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/comment-kevin-rudd-interview-understanding-how-china-sees-gao/?
高泽明
这是当前和下个世纪西方和中国面临的最根本的文化问题：
个人人权和国家认同在多大程度上是兼容的，或者是相互矛盾的？这个问题的答案将决定西方和中国的命运。
直到 20 世纪 50 年代，个人人权与国家认同之间存在着强大而积极的共存能量（或许甚至是协同作用）。 20世纪50年代到1990年代是一个过渡时期。从那时起，社会变得越来越分裂。日益增长的个人权利诉求与国家认同变得矛盾。这种矛盾首先不在于道德上的正确或优越，而在于现实中的实践兼容性。道德正当性是一个单独的问题，因为两者都可以在道德上正当或不正当。
这是美国人不承认、也不愿意承认的事情，因为没有明确、容易的答案。
骄傲蒙蔽了双眼。美国和所有西方国家一样，已经忘记了自己的根源，甚至羞于承认以下事实：
人权和民族认同在美国事实上在一段时间内是和谐的，是因为基督教——基督教的团结和基督教的宽容，因为两者都是必要的——而不是因为民主的政治发明，民主只是一种成果。是树的一部分，而不是树本身，甚至不是树枝本身。
这是基督教的独特特征，因为没有其他文化能够将民族认同和个人人权结合到可比的程度。
进入2020年代，西方对真正基督教的拒绝几乎已经完成。对人权的追求很大程度上失去了精神基础。如果没有精神真理作为基础，对人类自由的追求就变成了一种弄巧成拙的负担，而不是社会的赋能力量。
由于精神和文化状况的恶化，西方现在开始反对中国模式。
中国始终将国家认同置于个人人权之上。澳大利亚前总理陆克文尽管对中国非常了解，但他也是对中国近期国际政策转向以牺牲人权为代价强调国家主权感到困惑的西方人之一。
2022年6月2日——陆克文先生在题为“理解中国如何看待世界”的采访中探讨了中国国家主席习近平世界观的意识形态基础以及各国如何制定有效的对华政策。对话内容发布在 YouTube 上。这次采访是陆克文的最佳状态。和往常一样，他对中国的看法比大多数其他评论员更有洞察力。
但他仍然错过了远远超出政治或地缘政治范围的更根本的文化和价值观问题。
他似乎也对习近平的世界观感到惊讶。为何感到惊讶？中国现在所做的事情，既符合中华文化，也符合中国特色共产主义信条。中国之前在国际舞台上没有那么自信的唯一原因是它之前没有足够的信心这样做。
而且，中国将国家认同置于个人人权之上的做法日益不仅成为国内问题，而且成为全球问题，因为民族主义在更大范围内总是以牺牲他人利益为代价而发展。这不一定是中国的主观意图，但却是客观结果，因为价值体系总是会产生后果——无论是积极的还是消极的，都取决于价值的性质，无论是有意还是无意。
对于中国以及关于中国的大问题与上述相同：如果没有个人人权，中国能否发展成为一个强大的国家？
这不仅是一个哲学问题，也是一个经济问题和政治问题。哲学家甚至可能不想承认这个问题的合法性。这种哲学反驳道：如果没有人权，即使有可能，拥有一个强大的国家又有什么意义呢？
但这不仅仅是一个哲学家的问题。不管你喜欢与否，这就是中国正在努力做的事情，并将继续努力做的事情。如果西方总是把个人人权作为独立的原则，是说服不了中国的。
但如果没有个人人权，中国能发展成为一个强大的国家吗？
不要妄下结论。不要假设太多，尤其不要出于任何肤浅的情绪。至少在中国看来，国家实力和个人福祉是两个不同的东西，不一定要共存。
但一个坏的专制国家怎么可能强大呢？好吧，这取决于你如何定义“强”。历史上，坏国家搞破坏的现象屡见不鲜。
目的是成为一个强大的国家，至少在一段时间内，统治和摧毁其他更加文明和道德的国家。中国本身就不止一次成为这一进程的受害者。还记得成吉思汗的蒙古帝国对中国的征服吗？
尽管如此，价值仍然很重要。一个热爱自由的人民应该总是选择民主和法治而不是威权主义，也应该选择市场经济而不是民族主义经济和寡头经济等其他模式，不是因为认为前者更有效率，更重要的是因为他们支持更好的价值观。
但每一个价值信念都会受到考验，并需要以实际实力来衡量。仅仅主张个人人权并不是力量。力量至少需要勤奋和对自然法则的尊重，并且可以延伸到其他品格，例如正直、牺牲的爱和目的性。
现在判断中国的表现可能还为时过早。但很明显，西方的表现并不好。救赎的问题将再次落在西方文明的头上。这需要一种谦卑和悔改的觉醒，因为罪总是软弱的根源。
罪的特征往往是自我中心、自我放纵、无视自然法则和现实、不尊重神圣的命令，所有这些都会导致软弱。但如果西方对罪恶的本质变得越来越无知，不仅接受罪恶，甚至美化罪恶的表现，那么西方就不可能有一个强大的国家。美国也不例外。
这并不是说中国文化更道德或更罪恶，但如果上帝可以使用不敬虔的国王尼布甲尼撒来毁灭以色列这个离他更近的国家，那么他今天也可以在类似的寓言背景下再次这样做。
已发表 •
凯文·路德处于最佳状态。比大多数其他中国评论员更有洞察力。但这仍然没有指出西方和中国在当前和下个世纪面临的最根本问题：
个人人权和国家认同在多大程度上是兼容的，或者是相互矛盾的？
这个问题的答案将决定西方和中国的命运。
A fundamental question both the West and China must answer
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/comment-kevin-rudd-interview-understanding-how-china-sees-gao/?
This is the most fundamental cultural question facing the West and China at present and in the next century:
To what extent individual human rights and national identity are compatible, or else contradictory, to each other?
The answer to this question will determine the fate of the West and that of China.
Up until the 1950s, strong and positive coexistive energy (perhaps even synergy) between individual human rights and national identity existed in America. The 1950s to 1990s was a transition period. Since then, the society has become more and more fractured. The ever-increasing demand for individual rights has become contradictory to national identity. This contradiction is firstly not about what is morally right or superior, but about practical compatibility in reality. The moral justification is a separate matter, as both can be morally justified or not.
This is something that Americans do not admit, and are unwilling to admit, because there is no clear and easy answer.
Pride blinds. America, like all the Western nations, has forgotten its roots and become even too embarrassed to acknowledge the following fact:
The reason why human rights and national identity were in fact harmonious in America for some time was because of Christianity – both the Christian unity and the Christian forbearance, as both are necessary – not because of the political invention of democracy, which is only a fruit of the tree, not the tree, nor even a branch, itself.
It is a unique character of Christianity, for no other culture has been able to combine the national identity and individual human rights to a comparable degree.
Entering the 2020s, the rejection of true Christianity by the West is nearly complete. The pursuit of human rights has largely lost its spiritual basis. Without the spiritual truth as its foundation, the pursuit of human freedom has become a self-defeating burden rather than an enabling power to society.
With all these deteriorated spiritual and cultural conditions, the West is now pitched against the China model.
China always puts national identity ahead of individual human rights. Kevin Rudd, the former Prime Minister of Australia, despite being superbly knowledgeable about China, is one of the Westerners confused about the recent shift of China’s international policy toward emphasizing state sovereignty at the expense of human rights.
On June 2, 2022 — Mr. Rudd in an interview titled ‘Understanding How China Sees the World’ examined the ideological underpinnings of China President Xi Jinping’s worldview and how countries can create effective China policies. The conversation is posted on YouTube. The interview was Kevin Rudd at his best. As usual, he was far more insightful than most other commentators on China.
But he still missed the more fundamental culture and value question that goes way beyond politics or geopolitics.
He also seemed surprised by Xi Jinping’s worldview. Why surprised? What China does now is consistent with both Chinese culture and its communism doctrine with Chinese characteristics. The only reason China was not nearly as assertive in the international arena before was because it didn’t feel confident enough to do that previously.
And increasingly, China's putting national identity ahead of individual human rights is becoming not merely a domestic matter but a global one because nationalism, at a larger scale, always develops at the expense of others. Such is unnecessarily a subjective intent by China, but nevertheless an objective result, because a value system always has consequences – either positive or negative, all according to the nature of the value, whether intended or not.
The big question for China, and about China, is the same above: can China develop a strong nation without individual human rights?
It is not only a philosophical question but also an economic, as well as political one. The philosopher may not even want to acknowledge the legitimacy of this question. The philosophy retorts: without human rights, what’s the point of having a strong nation, even if it is possible?
But this is far more than a philosopher’s question. Whether you like it or not, that’s what China tries to do and will continue to try to do. If the West always starts with individual human rights as a standalone principle, it will not persuade China.
But can China develop a strong nation without individual human rights?
Resist jumping to axiomatic conclusions. Assume not too much, especially not from any superficial sentiment. At least in China’s view, national strength and individual well-being are two different things and may not have to coexist.
But how can a bad authoritarian country be strong? Well, it depends on how you define ‘strong’. Historically, it has been common for a bad nation to rise to become a strong nation, at least for a period of time, to dominate and devastate other nations that were more civilized and moral. China itself was a victim of that process more than once. Remember the conquering of China by Genghis Khan’s Mongol Empire.
Still, the value matters. A people that love freedom should always prefer democracy and the rule of law to authoritarianism, and also prefer a market economy to other models such as a nationalist economy and oligarchy economy, not because the former is believed to be more efficient, but more importantly because they support better values.
But every value belief will be tested and required to measure up in actual strength. Merely arguing for individual human rights is not strength. Strength requires at least diligence and respect for the laws of nature, and may extend to other characters such as integrity, sacrificial love, and purposefulness.
It may be too early to tell how China is doing. But it is quite clear that the West is not doing well. The question of salvation will again fall upon Western civilization. It will require a wakening that subsists humility and repentance, because sin is always at the root of weakness.
Sin tends to feature self-centeredness, self-indulgence, disregard of natural laws and reality, and disrespect of divine mandates, all leading to weakness. But if the West would become increasingly undiscerning with respect to the nature of sin, not only accepting it but even glorifying its manifestations, there could be no hope of a strong nation in the West. America will be no exception.
This is not to assert that Chinese culture is more moral or less sinful, but if God could use an ungodly king Nebuchadnezzar to devastate Israel, a nation closer to him, He can do it again in an allegorically similar context today.
To what extent individual human rights and national identity are compatible, or else contradictory, to each other?
The answer to this question will determine the fate of the West and that of China.
Kevin Rudd on Understanding How China Sees the World
ZURICH, June 2, 2022 - On Thursday, June 2, 2022, Asia Society Switzerland and Credit Suisse hosted the Hon. Kevin Rudd, President of Asia Society and former Prime Minister of Australia, at Forum St. Peter in Zurich for a conversation on China’s worldview with Nico Luchsinger, Executive Director of Asia Society Switzerland.
Our key takeaways
Xi Jinping’s worldview in ten concentric circles. Understanding how China sees the world is not just an idle academic reflection. What is unfolding underneath our feet is profound change. Xi has changed China and broke with the path of evolving continuity of his predecessors. He has taken Chinese politics and economics to the left, and nationalism and foreign policy to the right. It is vital to understand Xi’s worldview, to be able to respond to it. His ten priorities are:
- Keep the Party in power, and himself as its leader, at all costs.
- Secure national unity as was done in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and will be done in Taiwan.
- Grow the economy.
- Do so in an environmentally sustainable fashion.
- Modernize the military into a world class force that can fight and win wars.
- Have at least a benign relationship with the 14 neighboring states, but preferably have them be compliant.
- Push the U.S. back by securing maritime influence in the Pacific and undermining American alliances in Asia.
- Convert Eurasia into a zone of economic opportunity that becomes increasingly dependent on China.
- Become an indispensable partner to the rest of the developing world.
- Change the nature of the international system, making it more compatible with China’s worldview.
Xi inserted Marxism-Leninism back into China’s economy. It is surprising how Xi Jinping has profoundly changed the economic growth model of China. Why would you change a model that for forty years delivered double-digit growth? A model which increased opportunities for the private sector, decreased the role of state planning and expanded economic integration with the rest of the world. Now, expected growth is in the low single digits.
The reason for the change is Xi Jinping and his strong Marxist-Leninist politics. The previous model created a whole bunch of new elites — people like Jack Ma. Xi sees these guys as ultimately being a challenge to the rule of the Communist Party, so he reigned them in by, for example, forcing mergers between successful private companies and weak state firms.
China wants to become indispensable to us all. Beijing’s grand strategy is to ensure that our economic, corporate, and individual wellbeing depends on access to the Chinese market. Up until 2017, there was a reasonably effective strategy in place to reach that goal, which included the Belt and Road Initiative and the 16+1 grouping tying Central and Eastern European countries to China. These developments were all making China an increasingly indispensable power on trade and capital markets.
Things went wrong because of classic overreach, which is Xi Jinping’s core failure. He has gone too far, too fast, too early, by adopting coercive economic diplomacy and direct wolf warrior diplomacy as tools to get countries to comply to China’s wishes. This has not advanced China’s interest.
The five parts of an effective China strategy if you’re not a superpower. These criteria make for a good way to manage the complex relationship with China:
- Never take a step back on human rights as they’re defined in the Universal Declaration of 1948, to which China is a signatory. Anchor your position on human rights in international law.
- Never step back from being an ally of the U.S. if you are one now.
- Maximize your economic engagement with China as appropriate.
- Work within the global governance system.
- If you pick a fight with China, and you’re not a superpower, be sure to not go at it alone.
For an example of how these criteria work in practice, look at Japan. It has managed its relationship with China through its own robust principles. The economic relationship between the two nations is still strong, even though Japan hasn’t taken steps back on its human rights principles or its alliance with the U.S. and is constantly building partnerships with others—most recently in the Quad—to effectively deal with China.
Don’t feel too flattered if China calls you special. Switzerland may think it has a special relationship with China, but Beijing says that to every country, except the U.S.
China has deep respect for Switzerland as an incredibly successful country. But the simple truth is: when China thinks about Europe, it thinks about Germany. The German view of how to engage China is scrutinized intimately in Beijing.
The war in Ukraine does not change things regarding Taiwan. Russia’s underwhelming performance in Ukraine, although we must suspend judgement until we know what will happen in Donbas, does not change China’s timetable for reunification with Taiwan at all.
Xi Jinping wants this to happen in the late 2020s, early 2030s. Until then, China is preparing itself by building a strong, decisive military force and a more dominant, resilient economy. If anything, China would tell Russia it should’ve better prepared itself before invading Ukraine. Better preparing itself is exactly what China is doing now.
Kevin Rudd in Zurich. Photo: André Hengst
Kevin Rudd is President and CEO of the Asia Society, and inaugural President of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He served as 26th Prime Minister of Australia (2007 to 2010, 2013) and as Foreign Minister (2010 to 2012). He is Chair of the Board of the International Peace Institute in New York, and Chair of Sanitation and Water for All – a global partnership of government and non-governmental organizations dedicated to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 6. He is a Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House and the Paulson Institute, and a Distinguished Statesman with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a member of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s Group of Eminent Persons.
