(好友..PHIL的观点..1-24-07) 油...(英文)

(好友..PHIL的观点..1-24-07) 油...(英文)

The Energy Report for Wednesday January 24, 2007



Presto change-o poof! Did we see the market psychology of crude change right before our very eyes? Could yesterday’s market actually confirm that that oil has bottomed? Crude oil was strong all day on weather and Nigerian kidnappings and closed higher with a late day surge. But it wasn’t the surge that made the market psychology seem so bullish but the story that seemed to drive it.



The market got a bounce on news that the Department of Energy plans to boost the emergency stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and that the President was planning to increase the SPR to 1.5 billion barrels. When the story hit the wire the market popped up like the DOE was going to by the oil tomorrow. So why rally today when the market won’t see any purchase until spring and then the purchases will only be about 100,000 barrels a day? It is probably because the bearish psychology has run its course. If this story came out say a week or two ago more than likely crude would have popped 50 points and then get hammered once again. But this week its all of a sudden bullish event! Hmmm...If the bears are going to get the momentum back from the bulls it will need help from today’s oil inventory report. I am looking for a bullish report and 2 million barrel draws across the board.



As expected the President outlined his new energy policy in his State of the Union speech last night. The President said, “Extending hope and opportunity depends on a stable supply of energy that keeps America’s economy running and America’s environment clean. For too long, our nation has been dependent on foreign oil. And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes, and to terrorists who could cause huge disruptions of oil shipments…raise the price of oil... and do great harm to the economy.

It is in our vital interest to diversify America’s energy supply, and the way forward is through technology. We must continue changing the way America generates electric power by even greater use of clean coal technology…..solar wind energy... and clean safe nuclear power. We need to press on battery research for plug-in and hybrid vehicles, and expand the use of clean diesel vehicles and bio-diesel fuel. We must continue in investing in new methods of producing ethanol- using every thing from wood chips, to grasses to agricultural wastes.

We have made a lot of progress, thanks to good policies in Washington and a strong response of the market, now even more dramatic advances are within reach. Tonight, I'll ask Congress to join me in pursuing a great goal. Let us build on the work we have done and reduce gasoline usage in The United States by 20% in the next 10 years-thereby cutting our total imports by the equivalent of three-quarters of all the oil we now import from the Middle East.

To reach this goal, we must increase the supply of alternative fuels by setting mandatory fuels standards to require 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels in 2017-nearly five times the current target. At the same time, we need to reform and modernize fuel economy standards for cars the way we did for light trucks- and conserve up to 8 and a half billon more gallons of gasoline by 2017.

Achieving these ambitious goals will dramatically reduce our dependence on foreign oil, but will not eliminate it. So as we continue to diversify our fuel supply, we must also step up our domestic oil production in environmentally sensitive ways. And to further protect America against severe disruptions to our oil supply, I ask Congress to double the current capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

America is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that will enable us to live our lives less dependant on oil. These technologies will help us be better stewards of the environment and that will help us confront the serious challenge of global climate change.”



Did he say global climate change! Well the country might be praying for a bit of global warming next week. The coldest blast in a decade may hit us next week. Bundle up.



Iran risk will be more prevalent in the price of oil. The US sent a second U.S aircraft carrier strike group to send Iran a strong message. Senator Carl Levin and Senator Harry Reid are asking the President to tone down the rhetoric with Iran. Yet Iran’s President Ahmadinejad is threatening not only to destroy Israel but the United States as well. Perhaps it’s because he thinks we have lost the will to fight.



We're long March crude from apprx 5151 - leave stop at 5200!



We're long February RBOB from apprx 13500 - raise stop to entry at 13500.

If not stopped out roll over to the March contract market on close.



We're long February heating oil from apprx 14590 - raise stop to entry and if not stopped out, roll over to March heating oil market on close.



Buy March natural gas at 710 - stop 690.



Have a GREAT day!