胡锦涛的访美将是人民币升值的信号？

Hu\'s US Visit May Signal Easing by China on Currency
Published: Thursday, 1 Apr 2010 | 10:08 PM ET Text Size By: Vikas Bajaj
The New York Times
It is the number that lurks behind much of modern economic life, a figure that helps shape the fortunes of nations and the price of nearly everything.


The number hovers around 6.827. It is the nearly fixed rate of exchange between China’s currency, the renminbi, and the United States dollar. Members of Congress say it is proof Beijing manipulates its currency to keep its exports cheap — at the expense of American exports and jobs.

They want the government to label China a “currency manipulator,” which would allow Washington to retaliate against China economically. But the announcement by Chinese authorities on Thursday that President Hu Jintao will be visiting Washington in two weeks is being seen as the beginning of a possible easing of the friction over the renminbi.

China experts said it was unlikely that China would have agreed to the visit unless there was at least an informal assurance by the Treasury Department that it would not be named a currency manipulator either on or around April 15 — the deadline for the Obama administration to submit one of its twice-a-year reports on foreign exchange to Congress.

At the same time, economists say the visit, and other Chinese moves, suggest China is finally willing to let the renminbi increase in value. Analysts at HSBC, the Hong Kong-based global bank, declared that “the latest development should make it more likely for Beijing to start moving away from the renminbi’s current de facto peg within the next few months, if not weeks.”

Before the disclosure of Mr. Hu’s trip, Goldman Sachs said that China seemed increasingly likely to allow the renminbi to begin a modest appreciation in the next three months. Helen Qiao, the China economist for Goldman Sachs, and others who have spoken with officials in Beijing said that the currency issue appeared to be under active discussion there.

But what should be the value of the renminbi? Most Western economists agree that the currency is undervalued, meaning that it would be stronger if it were allowed to float freely in relation to other currencies. But that is about all the economists agree on.

Some argue that the currency is undervalued by an astonishing 50 percent or more. Others contend it is about where it should be, economically speaking, saying the currency is undervalued by about 10 percent.