主力做庄及其回报率

主力做庄及其回报率

主力做庄的优势是拥有定价权并控制了市场。其盈利极限是市场上所有的Prey资金。当大众没钱供输时，主力资金有即使再大的优势、再多的闲置可供调用的资金，也无法盈利！

大资金即使坐庄，由于持仓总数巨大，收集和派发也具消耗时间和价格空间的固有规律，从ROI来说，并非想象地那么高：
1，长时间吸筹有时间成本；
2，利用盘外资源有隐性成本；
3，即使坐庄成功，真正的加权平均派发价格并不高，因为派发是分批的。比如，行情最低股价$10到最高$20，平均持筹成本可能在$12；拉升过程还有拉升成本，到$16可能就开始一边买拉升股价，同时一边派发卖，表现为Effective Selling=卖多于买。到顶点$20后，再一路More Effective Selling，停在前支撑线$16左右震荡派发，主要派发价格区大致就是$16，所以，估算ROI不过是$4/$12=33%，而股价从最低到最高却是翻倍！真正的原因在于，主力做庄的运作和盈利模式与跟随资金的模式完全不同。

所以，大资金虽占尽一切优势肯定赚，却也辛苦！比较而言，在有意识地利用主力做盘过程的规律和特点前提下，聪明的小资金有取得高ROI的机会和可能性，因而，可对大资金的占尽除船小好掉头之外的一切优势也大可心平气和(Martin S. Schwartz ROI非常高，成立Hedge Fund后，资金量相对于交易方法的市场容量显得过大而ROI严重减低，后来毅然退还部分客户资金，保持总资金量$80M时稳定地得心应手)。

主力资金或庄家，比如，Buffett, Soros, Rogers, Peter Lynch宣扬价值投资，宣扬市场整体是客观的、机械运行的、随机漫步的、混沌无序的、无生命的Entity，却从不揭示市场人与人之间博弈的本质，且博弈类型是：专业运动员兼裁判员 vs 业余儿童选手 之间的游戏!

包括货币政策、股市“投资”和期货操作在内的一整套金融运行和银行体系，是最具蓄意欺骗性的。西方社会是金权天下，金钱操纵权力，进而统治全社会，经济和金融上的欺骗性远远超过政治上的欺骗性(西方社会在经济和金融上包装神话、运作个人崇拜、鼓吹社会公平性和个人努力的重要性；东方社会在政治上包装神话、运作个人崇拜、鼓吹血统高贵论和独裁专制合理性：东方社会的政治欺骗性，远远超过经济和金融上的欺骗性!)。

超级主力能把AAPL从$2做到$700，把BIDU从$25做到$1,600，把AMZN从$6做到$300，毕竟属于极少数，动用的盘外资源和支付的隐性成本也必定巨大。

比如，Icahn与AAPL CEO Tim Cook谈Buyback Program的消息在Tuesday, Aug 13, 2013见诸于媒体。当天，AAPL就利用该消息从$46x大阳线越过技术位200SMA $470直线上涨到$490，随后几个交易日续涨到$51x：

Tuesday, Aug 13, 2013

Icahn discloses Apple position, calls for bigger buyback; shares jump
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1218902

Had a nice conversation with Tim Cook today. Discussed my opinion that a larger buyback should be done now. We plan to speak again shortly.

Carl Icahn on Twitter: "We currently have a large position in APPLE. We believe the company to be extremely undervalued. Spoke to Tim Cook today."

More from Icahn: "Discussed my opinion that a larger buyback should be done now. We plan to speak again shortly."

Apple (AAPL +4.1%) shares have jumped on the disclosure. The company added $50B to its buyback authorization in April.

Update: Statement from Apple: "We appreciate the interest and investment of all our shareholders. Tim [Cook] had a very positive conversation with Mr. Icahn today."

BREAKING- Carl Icahn Has Large Position In Apple (AAPL)
AUGUST 13, 2013 2:28 PM
http://breakingfinancenews.com/breaking/breaking-carl-icahn-has-large-position-in-apple-aapl/2676/

"Yesterday, Icahn Enterprises (NYSE: IEP) announced that it would start using Twitter to share material information."

主动Release的信息 ，都是蓄意令大众知道的信息！

同时，AAPL还有个著名的空头主力Bill Ackman：

Ackman: Missed AAPL Below $100, And Still too Hard to Value
February 13, 2013, 6:31 P.M. ET
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2013/02/13/ackman-missed-aapl-below-100-and-still-too-hard-to-value/

价值投资者，尤其是业余水平的价值投资者，就要好好想想Ackman的这句话：
" I think it’s a well-managed company, and one of the great brands of the world, and there’s a lot of affection for Apple, but I think it’s hard to know [how to value the business]."

Bill Ackman Won’t Buy Into Mysterious Apple
February 14, 2013
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/bill-ackman-wont-buy-into-mysterious-apple.html/?a=viewall

在AAPL从2012年9月的$700一路连续压盘派发大跌，至2013年2月中旬，历经5个月跌到$46x后，Ackman出面支持空方、并遏阻多方在当时的波段局部低位购买。由于大资金的长线战略和波段战役都需要空间和时间，Ackman发表声明后，AAPL继续续跌了：在时间上是2个月，在空间上超过15%并且打穿了$400重要整数位、最低到达过经典技术数字位$389.xx.

这都是派发的操作形式并支付了隐性成本。

就如John Alfred Paulson是著名的黄金多头主力，为什么认为他在黄金大跌时就真的赔钱了呢？

Gold Bull Paulson Cuts SPDR Stake by Half in Bear Market
Aug 15, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html

"Paulson & Co., the largest investor in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product for the metal, pared its stake to 10.2 million shares in the three months ended June 30 from 21.8 million at the end of the first quarter, according to a government filing yesterday. The New York-based firm, which manages $18 billion, cut its ownership for the first time since 2011 “due to a reduced need for hedging."

2013年6月28日星期五，是截止6月30日季度的最后交易日，黄金价格在当日创局部最低点！由此说来，这昔日的黄金多头超人卖在了最低点！

这种过家家舆论操作手法高么？

即使Paulson自身的Fund真的赔钱了，他收取的隐性收入也会Cover该成本。

多空都可以盈利，关键的是Timing。他们就是在盘面需要的Timing时出来说话操纵大众心理和思维！更可人为凭空创造理由达到盘面需要的目的：

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Gets The Famous “Icahn Lift”
August 26th, 2013
http://etfdailynews.com/2013/08/26/apple-inc-aapl-gets-the-famous-icahn-lift/

If you owned Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock , you saw a 5% jump in shares on August 13, when Carl Icahn tweeted that he held “a large” position in Apple.

Same with Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), when shares spiked as much as 14%, back on October 31, 2012, when Icahn’s regulatory findings revealed he held a tidy 10% stake in the company.

So, what’s the secret to pocketing these double-digit gains?

Both came about thanks to the moves of one legendary investor, one “self-made man” worth about $20 billion today…

The good news: He’s not done, and you have a chance to profit from him, as we’ll see.

任何大规模行情都是精心策划的有组织、有纪律、层次清晰、分工明确的集团资金大规模歼灭战！