美国3月就业报告一个小时前公布,整个经济还是在增加就业机会,就是锐气大减:
彭博的摘要:
Nonfarm Payroll: +126,000 - Establishment Survey
Employment: +34,000 - Household Survey
Unemployment: -130,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work: +70,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work: -104,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 at 5.5% - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 10.9% - Household Survey
Civilian Non-institutional Population: +181,000
Civilian Labor Force: -96,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force: +277,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate: -0.1 at 62.7 - Household Survey【注1】
Average weekly hours of all private employees declined by 0.1 to 34.5 hours. Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.04 at $20.86【每周收入不升反降】
觉得美国经济的旺劲儿是告一段落了,稍后好好总结一下。现在的预测是什么呢?
美国(一季)经济也许不至于收缩(数据是很玄,参见如何理解美国(经济)新常态和帖子里的接链),但股市是得先回调了。
股民能做的,就是祈祷联储不加息,联储一吹,股市说不定有戏,今天(债券)利率、美元下跌,就是这儿心态【注2】。
于此同时,日本经济也是不景气:
华尔街日报博文:Japan on Brink of Another GDP Contraction
因为2月收缩达-2.1%,3月得增长1.5%一季度才能打平(年率15%,不容易),专家预测是:难。为什么呢?老百姓不愿意花钱,究其原因,工资不涨,信心不足。可见安倍白干了。
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日本工资增长数据修改后,比原来糟多了
也许安倍应当花点儿时间考虑“中国亚太共荣圈”,放下面子申请亚投行?
美国经济危机后就业恢复到原来的水平了吗?
就业是这次美国经济复苏的最主要的象征。去年一年每月新的职位至少20万,最近几个月将近30万,很火。
那美国经济危机后就业恢复到原来的水平了吗?
这是美国所有职位的数目,可见总数目已经超过经济危机前的高峰:
这是每个月的增减数目:
累计数目,2014年4月经济危机丢失的职位全部恢复:
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事情是不是就此了解呢?不那么简单。
人口在增加,将以前丢失的恢复了,新的怎么办?
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当然不能单纯地用人口增加(没水平了),如如何理解美国(经济)新常态所言,退休的人数在增加,还得考虑未成年、就读人数。
两个概念,就业人口(Employment Population)和劳工人口(Labor Force)。就业人口,主要是年龄来定,到了年龄,各种原因个人加入或不加入就业大军,加入的组成劳工人口。
人口 | 就业人口率 | 就业大军 | |
2014 | 318.86 | 59.30% | 189.08398 |
2007 | 298.36 | 62.90% | 187.66844 |
就业大军多了一百四十万。目前劳工人口率(Labor Participation Rate)很低,属于劳工人口的就业大军就更少了,所以新的两百多万个职位,算是复原了。
不过也有人认为经济结构还是有问题,就业大军小了,制造力就小了,经济强度就上不去。
2015.01.09At an Average of 246,000 Jobs a Month in 2014, It Will Be the Summer of 2017 Before We Return to Pre-recession Labor Market Health
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劳工部长佩雷斯发表博文,打气:
Why I’m Optimistic About the Economy
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也无可厚非。
【注1】此点是悲观人士常提的。
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【注2】零对冲:Here We Go: Goldman Declares That "The Right Policy Would Be To Put Hikes On Hold For Now"
【附录】
华尔街日报图表:
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