如果MBS Default的问题持续发酵，不排除会成为黑天鹅事件，但暂时还没看到大的风险。现在的问题是，一些office building入住率太低，但同时贷款利率持续飙升，精明的Landlord不想填无底洞，干脆让代理公司破产了事。与此同时，FED为了降低通货膨胀，持续减持MBS，以达到抽干市场上liquidity的目的。这会进一步推低商业地产的价值，导致没人愿意接盘。
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The Fed's holdings of MBS have dropped by $130 billion from the peak, to $2.61 trillion. Over the past four weeks, MBS have dropped by $15 billion.
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As the Fed continues to raise interest rates , prices in the $8.7 trillion agency or government-backed MBS market could fall further, prompting financial institutions to trim their balance sheet to stem losse.
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With at least $92 billion of office mortgages maturing in 2023, landlords are under increasing pressure.
Recent news on the commercial mortgage default --
- Mar. 2, 2023， Blackstone Inc. defaulted on a $562 million bond backed by a portfolio of Finnish offices and stores.
- Feb. 22, 2023, An office landlord controlled by Pacific Investment Management Co. has defaulted on about $1.7 billion of mortgage notes on seven buildings
- Feb. 20, 2023, A fund managed by Brookfield Properties defaulted on $784 million of loans on two well-known Los Angeles office skyscrapers.
[Reference]
3. https://www.connectcre.com/stories/large-office-loan-defaults-are-on-the-rise/
