全球世纪中的美国领导力
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/american-leadership-in-a-global- century/
卡洛斯·帕斯夸尔 2009 年 6 月 12 日 @CarlosEPascual
卡洛斯·帕斯夸尔（Carlos Pascual，生于 1959 年）是一位古巴裔美国外交官，曾分别在巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 总统和比尔·克林顿 (Bill Clinton) 总统领导下担任美国驻墨西哥和乌克兰大使。他于 1983 年至 1995 年在美国国际开发署任职，并于 1995 年至 2000 年在白宫国家安全委员会任职，最终担任俄罗斯、乌克兰和欧亚大陆事务高级主任。 他曾担任美国国务院对欧洲和欧亚大陆的援助协调员，随后于 2003 年至 2005 年担任重建与稳定协调员。后来，他在布鲁金斯学会任职, 并被任命为美国国务院国际能源事务特使兼协调员。 2011年至2014年国务院能源局。
S&P Global Commodity Insights 全球能源高级副总裁
美国国防政策 美国外交政策
卡洛斯·帕斯夸尔在莱文沃斯堡指挥与参谋学院发表毕业典礼致辞。 帕斯夸尔向毕业生提出挑战，要求他们将美国领导力的观点运用到全球化世界中。
考德威尔中将，感谢您今天邀请我来到这里，感谢您的领导以及您的热情介绍。 我还要向阿特中将、约翰卓军士长、卡登准将表示感谢，最重要的是向指挥与参谋学院的家属和毕业生表示感谢。
感谢你们允许我今天加入你们的行列，向来自美国和国外的 960 名毕业生致敬。
我想来这里是因为我相信这是一个致力于建设和平的机构。 当然，你们的根本使命是保护我们的国家：实际上是保护你们所有人所来自的 60 多个国家，但在我们生活的世界中，保护我们的国家利益离不开参与我们的国际社会。
七十年前，温斯顿·丘吉尔这样告诫美国：
“一个人如果不参与文明世界的问题，不被其痛苦所震撼，不被其原因所鼓舞，就无法在许多方面成为文明世界的领导群体。 如果这一点在过去得到了证明，就像现在一样，那么它将在未来变得无可争议。 美国人民无法逃避世界责任。”
如果七十年前确实如此，那么今天更是如此。 让我给你们读一下巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama) 的《无畏的希望》(Audacity of Hope)——这本书是在他的总统抱负仍是一个遥远的愿景时写成的。
“当杜鲁门、艾奇逊、凯南和马歇尔坐下来设计二战后秩序的架构时，他们的参考框架是主导十九世纪和二十世纪初的大国之间的竞争……美国最大的威胁 来自纳粹德国或苏维埃俄罗斯等扩张主义国家……那个世界已不复存在。
“[今天]日益增长的威胁......主要来自世界经济边缘的那些国际“道路规则”尚未确立的地区......绝大多数人口贫困的土地， 没有受过教育，与全球信息网络隔绝； 统治者担心全球化会放松他们对权力的控制……正是这种日益将世界联系在一起的相互联系，赋予了那些想要摧毁这个世界的人的力量。”
我提出这些观点并不是为了引起对全球化的恐惧，而是为了灌输对全球化力量的尊重，对如何参与全球化的理解，以及对我们在塑造全球化过程中单独行动的能力的局限性的谦逊感。
我们生活在一个资本、技术、思想和人员无国界的世界。 正是这种超越国界、利用世界能力和进入世界市场的能力，使中国和印度数亿人摆脱了贫困。 它在美国创造了前所未有的财富。 它甚至为全球推进和平的能力做出了贡献。 许多人忘记了这样一个现实：自冷战结束以来，通过联合国等机构的合作已将国家内部冲突的数量减少了一半。
但当我们无法治理全球化时，全球化就有它的阴暗面，而在这方面，无论是作为一个国家还是作为一个全球社会，我们还没有取得成功。 因此，我们有：
• 美国的住房危机演变成金融危机，然后是全球衰退，美国失业率超过 9%，中国有 2000 万人流离失所，一些地方的最贫困人口被推向生存边缘 比如马里、乍得或秘鲁的山脉。
• 工业革命为数十亿人带来了汽车、电视和冰箱，但它也巩固了化石燃料的使用模式，导致大气中碳浓度升高，威胁到我们所知的生命。
• 在这个世界上，核技术已经为无碳未来的电力生产创造了能力，但这种技术不受控制的扩散已使朝鲜和伊朗等国家对世界和平与稳定构成威胁。
在这个超越国界的世界里，没有一个国家能够独善其身，也没有一个国家能够独善其身。
这就是为什么奥巴马总统说美国安全与全球安全密不可分。 我们的未来是紧密相连的。
但我们的挑战，你们的挑战，是了解如何在我们的全球环境中运用这些观点。 让我向您提出几点看法：
首先，国际挑战的规模比我们所知道的任何挑战都要大：
我们今天面临危机。 你很了解它们——在某些情况下太了解了：阿富汗/巴基斯坦、伊拉克、伊朗、朝鲜、中东；
全球稳定面临的地缘政治挑战：有效管理中国和印度的崛起； 咄咄逼人、自信的俄罗斯； 在整个拉丁美洲，美国有时成为次要参与者； 和
生存或全球挑战：金融危机、气候变化、恐怖主义、核扩散以及国家内部和国家之间的冲突。
这个议程上的哪些内容我们可以推迟？ 我们可以把什么放在一边？ 很少。 因此，对于我们国家和我们每个人来说，这是一个重要的教训：这个世界的领导力意味着与其他国家建立伙伴关系，为了一个和平与繁荣的世界分担这一负担。 它需要树立对我们国家的尊重 — — 这意味着我们在遵守法治方面树立光辉榜样 — — 以便我们能够利用这些伙伴关系和关系来成功推进我们的国家利益。 如果这对美国来说是这样，那么对今天在座的每个国家来说也是如此。
这些并不是理想主义的幻想。 如今，发展和维持有效伙伴关系以及获得世界尊重的能力已成为美国的新现实主义。
我也将这一观察留给你们。 我们面临的问题是相互关联的——它们的相互作用决定了我们的未来——但与此同时，除非我们了解定义我们现实的相互关联的力量，否则我们无法找到解决方案。
经济危机不仅导致就业岗位减少，还影响每个国家对碳定价的能力，这一措施被视为鼓励保护和创新的关键措施，从而阻止环境变化，而环境变化至今仍是洪水、干旱的原因之一。 、疾病和迁移。
气候变化正在加剧对稀缺资源（尤其是土地和水）的竞争，这可能会引发未来的冲突。 我们确信的一件事是，如果不解决土地和水的根本稀缺问题，就无法永久解决达尔富尔等地区的冲突。
对于那些想知道为什么我们应该关心遥远冲突的人来说，让我们不要忘记，我们在美国领土上发生的最严重的冲突是由世界上最贫穷的国家之一——阿富汗精心策划的。
我们从中学到什么？
如果我们想了解未来的威胁可能出现在哪里，我们就不要根据眼前的静态现实来评估世界，而应该寻求衡量全球力量的相互作用的影响。
当我们为未来做准备并寻找当今问题的解决方案时，我们必须了解当今威胁的军事层面如何与推动安全环境的其他社会、经济、文化和宗教因素相互交叉。 但我也警告这一点：我们的军队不是要解决所有这些问题，而是要成为我们文职当局投资和建设这些能力的良心和驱动力。
作为检验我们是否朝着正确方向前进的基本检验——检验我们是否对自己诚实——关注当地的现实。 例如，询问如何才能在阿富汗南部的社区实现安全和繁荣，然后询问什么才能使其可持续——在这里我怀疑您会发现以下现实：
如果不培养当地同行的能力——无论他们是军队、警察、政府官员还是企业家，我们就无法保持成功。
建设这种能力意味着我们的人民对他们的人民进行投资——这就是为什么我们派遣 4,000 名士兵来训练和指导阿富汗警察和军队
但我知道你们会对我们国家政府民间投资的能力感到非常失望，也许已经感到非常失望 — — 不是因为没有意愿，而是因为我们没有人民。 看看这个鲜明的对比：我们向阿富汗派遣的 4,000 名军事训练员占全球 6,500 名外交官的三分之二。
作为一个国家，我们已经开始做出一些重大改变。 奥巴马总统要求将 2010 财年外交预算增加 11%。 这是一个谦虚的开始。 为了实现这一目标并继续增强这种能力，需要与国家安全息息相关的人们以及来自美国腹地的人们的支持。
在我们心里，我相信我们必须谦虚，但不能黯淡。 我们有一个独特的时刻。
我走遍了世界——我没有在任何地方看到过对美国领导地位的拒绝。 相反，人们渴望改变基于伙伴关系和共享投资的领导风格。 这符合我们的利益。
在美国，一次又一次的民意调查显示，美国人民希望建立国际伙伴关系与合作。 直觉上，我们作为一个国家理解与他人合作、分担非常时期负担的智慧。
实现可持续伙伴关系的核心手段是遵守法治。 这发挥了我们的优势，而不是我们的弱点，这使我们在国内变得强大，我们也应该在国际上对此表示欢迎。
是的，我们会遇到问题——全球环境也意味着全球竞争。 有些人意图伤害我们和世界各地的好人。 我们在伦敦、马德里、孟买以及巴基斯坦和整个中东的许多城市看到了悲惨的恐怖行为。
但我们不能阻止我们改变对这个跨国世界的看法、实现我们的能力现代化以及建设我们共同行动的能力。 我们的优势在于我们的员工——我们的创造力、诚实、正直、对努力工作的承诺，以及我们共同参与这些全球努力的道德信念——为了我们的家庭和我们的子孙后代。 我们的希望寄托在像您这样的人身上，这是信心的源泉。
指挥参谋学院 09-1 班，恭喜。 祝您和您的家人一切顺利。 我们的国家以及今天在座的每个国家都对你们表示感谢。
American Leadership in a Global Century
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/american-leadership-in-a-global-century/
Carlos Pascual June 12, 2009 @CarlosEPascual
Carlos Pascual (born 1959) is a Cuban-American diplomat and the former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico and Ukraine under President Barack Obama and Bill Clinton respectively.[1] He served at the U.S. Agency for international Development from 1983 to 1995, and at the White House National Security Council from 1995 to 2000, ultimately as senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia.[2] He was the State Department Coordinator for U.S. Assistance to Europe and Eurasia, and subsequently the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization from 2003 to 2005. Later he served at the Brookings institution[3] and was appointed Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs at the State Department's Bureau of Energy from 2011 to 2014.[4]
He currently serves as senior vice president at S&P Global.
U.S. Defense Policy U.S. Foreign Policy
Carlos Pascual delivered the commencement address at Fort Leavenworth Command and General Staff College. Pascual challenged graduates to make operational the perspectives of American leadership in a globalized world.
Lieutenant General Caldwell, thank you for inviting me here today, for your leadership, and for your kind introduction. Let me extend my thanks as well to Lieutenant General Arter, Command Sergeant Major Johndrow, Brigadier General Cardon, and most importantly to the families and graduates of the Command and General Staff College.
Thank you for allowing me to join you today and to pay tribute to this graduating class – all 960 of you – from the United States and abroad.
I wanted to come here because I believe this is an institution dedicated to building peace. Of course your fundamental mission is to protect our nation: indeed to protect the more than 60 nations from which all of you hail, but we live in a world where protecting our national interests cannot be separated from engaging in our global community.
Seven decades ago, Winston Churchill exhorted the United States this way:
“One cannot rise to be in many ways the leading community in the civilized world without being involved in its problems, without being convulsed by its agonies and inspired by its causes. If this has been proved in the past, as it has been, it will become indisputable in the future. The people of the United States cannot escape world responsibility.”
And if that was true seven decades ago, it is even truer today. Let me read to you from Barack Obama’s Audacity of Hope – written when his presidential aspirations were still a distant vision.
“When Truman , Acheson, Kennan, and Marshall sat down to design the architecture of the post-World War II order, their frame of reference was the competition between the great powers that had dominated the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries….America’s greatest threats came from expansionist states like Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia….That world no longer exists.
“[Today] the growing threat…comes primarily from those parts of the world on the margins of the global economy where the international “rules of the road” have not taken hold ….lands in which an overwhelming majority of the population is poor, uneducated, and cut off from the global information grid; places where the rulers fear globalization will loosen their hold on power….The very interconnectivity that increasingly binds the world together has empowered those who would tear that world down.”
I raise these perspectives not to engender a fear of globalization, but to instill a respect for its power, an understanding of how to engage it, and a sense of humility about the limits of our capacity to act alone in shaping it.
We live in a world where capital, technology, ideas and people know no boundaries. It is this very capacity to transcend borders, to tap world capabilities, and to have access to world markets that has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty in China and India. It has created unprecedented wealth here in the United States. It has even contributed to a global capacity to advance peace. Forgotten by many is this reality: that cooperation through bodies like the United Nations has cut in half the number of conflicts within states since the end of the Cold War.
But globalization has its dark side when we fail to govern it, and here we have yet to succeed – as a nation, or as a global community. Hence, we have:
- A world where a housing crisis in the U.S. turned into a financial crisis and then a global recession with unemployment over 9 percent in the U.S., with 20 million displaced in China, with the poorest of the poor pushed to the margins of survival in places like Mali, Chad, or the mountains of Peru.
- A world where the industrial revolution has brought cars, televisions and refrigerators to billions, but it has entrenched a pattern of fossil fuel use that is causing carbon concentrations in our atmosphere that threatens life as we know it.
- A world where nuclear technology has created capacity for a carbon-free future in producing electricity, but the uncontrolled proliferation of this technology has made countries, such as North Korea and Iran a menace to world peace and stability.
In this world that transcends borders, no one nation can succeed along, yet no nation can isolate itself from global problems.
This is why President Obama says American security is inseparable from global security. Our futures are intertwined.
But our challenge, your challenge, is to understand how to make operational these perspectives on our global environment. Let me leave you with a few observations:
First, the scale of international challenges is greater than any we have ever known:
- We face today crises. You know them well – in some cases too well: Afghanistan/Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East;
- Geopolitical challenges to global stability: managing productively the rise of China and India; an aggressively assertive Russia; and throughout Latin America, a dynamic of change where the United States has become at times a secondary player; and
- Existential or global challenges: the financial crisis, climate change, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and conflict within and between states.
What on this agenda can we put off? What can we place aside? Very little. Thus, an important lesson for our country and for everyone one of us: leadership in this world means to build partnerships with other nations to share this burden for the sake of a peaceful and prosperous world. It requires building respect for our nation – and that means setting a shining example in our adherence to the rule of law – so that we can leverage these partnerships and relationships to succeed in advancing our national interests. If this is true for the United States, it is equally true for every nation represented here today.
These are not idealistic fantasies. Today, the ability to develop and sustain effective partnerships and the respect of the world has become the new American realism.
I leave you with this observation as well. The problems that we face are interconnected – their interaction defines our future – but at the same time we cannot find solutions unless we understand the interlinked forces that are defining our reality.
The economic crisis is not only shedding jobs, it affects the capacity of every nation to put a price on carbon, a measure seen as critical to encouraging conservation and innovation, and thus deterring the environmental changes that even now are a cause of floods, draughts, disease and migration.
Climate change is exacerbating competition for scarce resources – especially land and water – that could drive future conflicts. One thing we know for sure is that without addressing the underlying scarcities of land and water there are no permanent solutions to conflict in places like Darfur.
And for those who wonder why we should care about distant conflict, let us not forget that the most significant strife we have ever had on American territory was orchestrated from one of the poorest countries in the world – Afghanistan.
What do we learn from this?
Let’s not assess the world based on the static realities before us – but seek instead to gauge the interactive effects of global forces if we are to understand where future threats may emerge.
As we prepare for the future and search for solutions to today’s problems, we must understand how the military dimensions of today’s threats intersect with the other social, economic, cultural and religious factors driving the security environment. But I also caution this: it is not for our militaries to solve all of these problems, but to be a conscience and driver to our civilian authorities to invest and build these capabilities.
As a basic test of whether we are headed in the right direction – to test whether we are honest with ourselves – focus on local realities. Ask what it will take to deliver security and prosperity in a community in Southern Afghanistan, for example, and then ask what will make it sustainable – and here I suspect you’ll find these realities:
- We can’t sustain success without building the capacity of local counterparts – whether they be military, police, government officials, entrepreneurs.
- Building that capacity means an investment of our people in their people – that is why we are sending 4,000 troops to train and mentor Afghan police and military
- But I know you will be sorely disappointed, and perhaps have already been, in our nation’s capacity to invest from the civilian side of our government – not because the will is not there, but because we don’t have the people. Look at this stark contrast: the 4,000 military trainers we are sending to Afghanistan constitute two-thirds of 6,500 foreign service officers across the world.
As a nation, we have begun to make some critical changes. President Obama requested an 11 percent increase in his FY 2010 Foreign Affairs budget. It is a modest beginning. It will take the support of those of you with a stake in the nation’s security, and from America’s heartland, to achieve this and to continue to grow this capacity.
In our hearts, I believe we must be humble, but not bleak. We have a unique moment.
I have traveled the world – nowhere have I seen a rejection of American leadership. Instead, there is a thirst for a change in the style of leadership based on partnerships and shared investments. That is in our interest.
In the United States, poll after poll shows that the American people want international partnerships and cooperation. Intuitively, we as a nation understand the wisdom of working with others and sharing the burden of extraordinary times.
A core means to achieving sustainable partnerships is adherence to the rule of law. That plays to our strength – not our weakness – it is what makes us strong at home and we should welcome this internationally as well.
Yes, we will encounter problems – a global environment also means global competition. There are those who mean to hurt us and good people throughout the world. We have seen tragic acts of terror in London, Madrid, Mumbai and many cities in Pakistan and throughout the Middle East.
But we cannot be deterred in transforming our perspectives on this transnational world, modernizing our capabilities, and building our capacity to act together. Our strength is in our people – our creativity, honesty, decency, commitment to hard work, and a moral belief that we are in these global endeavors together – for the sake of our families and the generations that come behind us. Our hope is in people like you, and that is a source of confidence.
Command and Staff College Class of 09-1, congratulations. Good speed to you, and to your families. You have the gratitude of our nation, and every nation represented here today.
